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Werder Bremen U19 vs Hannover 96 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Werder Bremen U19
Werder Bremen U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hannover 96 U19
Hannover 96 U19
2/24/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 18Weserstadion Platz 14 KR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Werder Bremen U1945%
×Draw21%
Hannover 96 U1934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Werder Bremen U19
2.14
Hannover 96 U19
1.86

Werder Bremen U19 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 69 away

creates per match

Werder Bremen U19
2.47
Hannover 96 U19
2.03

allows per match

Werder Bremen U19
1.70
Hannover 96 U19
1.80

finishing

Werder Bremen U19+0.00on par
Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werder Bremen U19 ↓

Hannover 96 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Werder Bremen U19 or draw
66%
Werder Bremen U19 or Hannover 96 U19
79%
Draw or Hannover 96 U19
55%

Winning margin

Werder Bremen U19 wins by 2+
26%
Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Werder Bremen U19 1+ goals
88%
Werder Bremen U19 2+ goals
63%
Werder Bremen U19 3+ goals
36%
Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals
84%
Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals
55%
Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Werder Bremen U19 (draw refunded)
57%
Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werder Bremen U19 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.70 · 70 matches

Hannover 96 U19 away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.80 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werder Bremen U19 attack 2.47 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.14

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.03 + Werder Bremen U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Werder Bremen U19 scores more
45%
level
21%
Hannover 96 U19 scores more
34%

Werder Bremen U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Werder Bremen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Werder Bremen U19 vs Hannover 96 U19

Hannover 96 U19 beat Werder Bremen U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Weserstadion Platz 14 KR in Bremen.