Werder Bremen U19 2–0 Chemnitzer FC U19

Werder Bremen U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chemnitzer FC U19

K. Keršys 90+1'

R. Schwarz 48'

2/26/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 14Weserstadion Platz 14 KR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Werder Bremen U1961%

×Draw18%

Chemnitzer FC U1921%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Werder Bremen U19Expected goals in this matchChemnitzer FC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.64

1.53

Werder Bremen U19

2.64

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.53

Werder Bremen U19 creates 73% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 51 away

2.53

creates per match

1.41

1.65

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Werder Bremen U19

2.53

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.41

allows per match

Werder Bremen U19

1.65

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Werder Bremen U19+0.00on par

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werder Bremen U19 ↓

Chemnitzer FC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Werder Bremen U19 or draw

79%

Werder Bremen U19 or Chemnitzer FC U19

82%

Draw or Chemnitzer FC U19

39%

Winning margin

Werder Bremen U19 wins by 2+

40%

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Werder Bremen U19 1+ goals

93%

Werder Bremen U19 2+ goals

74%

Werder Bremen U19 3+ goals

48%

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals

78%

Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals

45%

Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Werder Bremen U19 (draw refunded)

74%

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werder Bremen U19 at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.65 · 72 matches

Chemnitzer FC U19 away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.75 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werder Bremen U19 attack 2.53 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.64

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.41 + Werder Bremen U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Werder Bremen U19 scores more

61%

level

18%

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more

21%

Werder Bremen U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Werder Bremen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

R. Schwarz

65'

M. Schreiber← T. Seidel

66'

K. Keršys← D. Kasper

70'

R. Riesen← P. Kämpfer

78'

N. Tepe← E. Mekic

81'

L. Kümmritz← D. Asante

86'

F. Pawletta← J. Janz

90+1'

K. Keršys

Werder

Chemnitzer

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: C. Brand

66'▲K. Keršys←▼D. Kasper

78'▲N. Tepe←▼E. Mekic

81'▲L. Kümmritz←▼D. Asante

Werder Bremen U19 substitutes

KeršysTepeKümmritzAlpertNeyFenskiKöppener

Manager: J. Stephan

65'▲M. Schreiber←▼T. Seidel

70'▲R. Riesen←▼P. Kämpfer

86'▲F. Pawletta←▼J. Janz

Chemnitzer FC U19 substitutes

SchreiberRiesenPawlettaLungwitzWeidauer

Match Recap: Werder Bremen U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19

Werder Bremen U19 beat Chemnitzer FC U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 26, 2022.

Goals: R. Schwarz (48'), K. Keršys (90+1').

The match was played at Weserstadion Platz 14 KR in Bremen.

Werder Bremen U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Werder Bremen U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19