Werder Bremen U19 10–1 BAK 07 U19: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Werder Bremen U19Expected goals in this matchBAK 07 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.66

1.49

Werder Bremen U19

2.66

BAK 07 U19

1.49

Werder Bremen U19 creates 79% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 33 away

2.53

creates per match

1.33

1.65

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Werder Bremen U19

2.53

BAK 07 U19

1.33

allows per match

Werder Bremen U19

1.65

BAK 07 U19

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Werder Bremen U19+0.00on par

BAK 07 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werder Bremen U19 ↓

BAK 07 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Werder Bremen U19 or draw

80%

Werder Bremen U19 or BAK 07 U19

82%

Draw or BAK 07 U19

38%

Winning margin

Werder Bremen U19 wins by 2+

41%

BAK 07 U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Werder Bremen U19 1+ goals

93%

Werder Bremen U19 2+ goals

74%

Werder Bremen U19 3+ goals

49%

BAK 07 U19 1+ goals

77%

BAK 07 U19 2+ goals

44%

BAK 07 U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Werder Bremen U19 (draw refunded)

75%

BAK 07 U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werder Bremen U19 at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.65 · 72 matches

BAK 07 U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werder Bremen U19 attack 2.53 + BAK 07 U19 defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.66

BAK 07 U19 attack 1.33 + Werder Bremen U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Werder Bremen U19 scores more

62%

level

18%

BAK 07 U19 scores more

20%

Werder Bremen U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Werder Bremen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

8'

22'

27'

35'

58'

M. Ney← Y. Erten

64'

B. Kizildemir

64'

B. Kizildemir

65'

J. Imasuen

67'

B. Mashollaj← N. Tepe

68'

R. Schwarz

71'

B. Mashollaj

72'

L. Mina← J. Imasuen

72'

S. Abbey← T. Winkelmann

73'

74'

77'

84'

85'

85'

85'

O. Iraqi← D.Kanyi

88'

L. Mina

Werder

BAK

Schüler

Dorra

Iraki

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

Imasuen

▼

Winkelman

Manager: C. Brand

58'▲M. Ney←▼Y. Erten

67'▲B. Mashollaj←▼N. Tepe

72'▲L. Mina←▼J. Imasuen

72'▲S. Abbey←▼T. Winkelmann

Werder Bremen U19 substitutes

NeyMashollajMinaAbbeyKäuperBoelterZeqiraj

Manager: A. Arsovic

27'▲E. Izci←▼M. Kalini

73'▲A. Aksoy←▼A. Lubaki

85'▲D. Ngom←▼N. Kardam

85'▲M. Belaid←▼S. Akan

85'▲O. Iraqi←▼D.Kanyi

BAK 07 U19 substitutes

IzciAksoyNgomBelaidIraqiKizmaz

U19 Bundesliga: Werder Bremen U19 10–1 BAK 07 U19

Werder Bremen U19 beat BAK 07 U19 10-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 4, 2023.

Goals: L. Urban (6'), L. Opitz (8'), D. Kasper (22'), S. Akan (35'), J. Imasuen (65'), R. Schwarz (68', 77'), B. Mashollaj (71'), L. Mina (74', 84', 88').

The match was played at Weserstadion Platz 12 in Bremen.

Werder Bremen U19 vs BAK 07 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Werder Bremen U19 10–1 BAK 07 U19