Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Werder Bremen II vs Hamburger SV II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Werder Bremen II
Werder Bremen II
CANC
11:00
Hamburger SV II
Hamburger SV II
1/17/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3C-Platz Sittensen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Werder Bremen II77%
×Draw12%
Hamburger SV II11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Werder Bremen II
4.00
Hamburger SV II
1.60

Werder Bremen II creates 150% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Werder Bremen II
4.20
Hamburger SV II
1.80

allows per match

Werder Bremen II
1.40
Hamburger SV II
3.80

finishing

Werder Bremen II+0.00on par
Hamburger SV II+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werder Bremen II ↓

Hamburger SV II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

Werder Bremen II or draw
89%
Werder Bremen II or Hamburger SV II
88%
Draw or Hamburger SV II
23%

Winning margin

Werder Bremen II wins by 2+
60%
Hamburger SV II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Werder Bremen II 1+ goals
98%
Werder Bremen II 2+ goals
90%
Werder Bremen II 3+ goals
73%
Hamburger SV II 1+ goals
80%
Hamburger SV II 2+ goals
47%
Hamburger SV II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Werder Bremen II (draw refunded)
87%
Hamburger SV II (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werder Bremen II at home — creates 4.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Hamburger SV II away — creates 1.80, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werder Bremen II attack 4.20 + Hamburger SV II defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 4.00

Hamburger SV II attack 1.80 + Werder Bremen II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Werder Bremen II scores more
77%
level
12%
Hamburger SV II scores more
11%

Werder Bremen II at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Werder Bremen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Werder Bremen II vs Hamburger SV II — Match Preview

Werder Bremen II face Hamburger SV II on January 17, 2024 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Werder Bremen II host Hamburger SV II at C-Platz Sittensen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.