Wem Town W 1–5 Nottingham Forest W: Result & Stats

Wem Town W

1 – 5

Nottingham Forest W

11/27/2022

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundButler Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wem Town W9%

×Draw11%

Nottingham Forest W79%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wem Town WExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

3.96

Wem Town W

1.41

Nottingham Forest W

3.96

Nottingham Forest W creates 181% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

1.67

creates per match

3.92

4.00

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Wem Town W

1.67

Nottingham Forest W

3.92

allows per match

Wem Town W

4.00

Nottingham Forest W

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wem Town W+0.00on par

Nottingham Forest W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wem Town W ↓

Nottingham Forest W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–24%

0–35%

0–45%

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–38%

1–48%

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–45%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

76%24%4.5

58%42%

Double chance

Wem Town W or draw

21%

Wem Town W or Nottingham Forest W

89%

Draw or Nottingham Forest W

91%

Winning margin

Wem Town W wins by 2+

Nottingham Forest W wins by 2+

63%

Team goals

Wem Town W 1+ goals

76%

Wem Town W 2+ goals

41%

Wem Town W 3+ goals

17%

Nottingham Forest W 1+ goals

98%

Nottingham Forest W 2+ goals

89%

Nottingham Forest W 3+ goals

73%

Draw no bet

Wem Town W (draw refunded)

11%

Nottingham Forest W (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Wem Town W at home — creates 1.67, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

Nottingham Forest W away — creates 3.92, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Wem Town W attack 1.67 + Nottingham Forest W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.41

Nottingham Forest W attack 3.92 + Wem Town W defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 79%?"

Wem Town W scores more

level

11%

Nottingham Forest W scores more

79%

Nottingham Forest W at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Nottingham Forest W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff