Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wem Town W vs Chorley W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Wem Town W
Wem Town W
FT
0 – 4
Chorley W
Chorley W
11/10/2019FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st RoundPark Hall Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wem Town W4%
×Draw8%
Chorley W87%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wem Town W
0.83
Chorley W
3.83

Chorley W creates 361% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Wem Town W
1.67
Chorley W
3.67

allows per match

Wem Town W
4.00
Chorley W
0.00

finishing

Wem Town W+0.00on par
Chorley W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wem Town W ↓

Chorley W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–28%
0–310%
0–49%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Wem Town W or draw
13%
Wem Town W or Chorley W
92%
Draw or Chorley W
96%

Winning margin

Wem Town W wins by 2+
1%
Chorley W wins by 2+
73%

Team goals

Wem Town W 1+ goals
56%
Wem Town W 2+ goals
20%
Wem Town W 3+ goals
5%
Chorley W 1+ goals
98%
Chorley W 2+ goals
88%
Chorley W 3+ goals
71%

Draw no bet

Wem Town W (draw refunded)
5%
Chorley W (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wem Town W at home — creates 1.67, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

Chorley W away — creates 3.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wem Town W attack 1.67 + Chorley W defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Chorley W attack 3.67 + Wem Town W defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Wem Town W scores more
4%
level
8%
Chorley W scores more
87%

Chorley W at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Chorley W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Wem Town W 0–4 Chorley W

Chorley W beat Wem Town W 4-0 in FA Women's Cup on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Park Hall Stadium in Oswestry / Croesoswallt, Shropshire.