Wem Town W 4–3 Boldmere St. Michaels W

Wem Town W

4 – 3

Boldmere St. Michaels W

12/20/2020

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundButler Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wem Town W26%

×Draw18%

Boldmere St. Michaels W57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wem Town WExpected goals in this matchBoldmere St. Michaels W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

2.93

Wem Town W

1.98

Boldmere St. Michaels W

2.93

Boldmere St. Michaels W creates 48% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

1.67

creates per match

1.86

4.00

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Wem Town W

1.67

Boldmere St. Michaels W

1.86

allows per match

Wem Town W

4.00

Boldmere St. Michaels W

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wem Town W+0.00on par

Boldmere St. Michaels W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wem Town W ↓

Boldmere St. Michaels W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1–02%

1–14%

1–26%

1–36%

1–45%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Wem Town W or draw

43%

Wem Town W or Boldmere St. Michaels W

82%

Draw or Boldmere St. Michaels W

74%

Winning margin

Wem Town W wins by 2+

13%

Boldmere St. Michaels W wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Wem Town W 1+ goals

86%

Wem Town W 2+ goals

59%

Wem Town W 3+ goals

31%

Boldmere St. Michaels W 1+ goals

94%

Boldmere St. Michaels W 2+ goals

78%

Boldmere St. Michaels W 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Wem Town W (draw refunded)

31%

Boldmere St. Michaels W (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Wem Town W at home — creates 1.67, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

Boldmere St. Michaels W away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Wem Town W attack 1.67 + Boldmere St. Michaels W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.98

Boldmere St. Michaels W attack 1.86 + Wem Town W defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Wem Town W scores more

26%

level

18%

Boldmere St. Michaels W scores more

57%

Boldmere St. Michaels W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Boldmere St. Michaels W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff