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Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Sebeta Kenema — Premier League 2019

Welwalo Adigrat Uni
Welwalo Adigrat Uni
FT
2 – 2
Sebeta Kenema
Sebeta Kenema
3/8/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Adigrat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Welwalo Adigrat Uni32%
×Draw29%
Sebeta Kenema38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Welwalo Adigrat Uni
1.03
Sebeta Kenema
1.15

Sebeta Kenema creates 12% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 35 away

creates per match

Welwalo Adigrat Uni
0.75
Sebeta Kenema
1.00

allows per match

Welwalo Adigrat Uni
1.30
Sebeta Kenema
1.31

finishing

Welwalo Adigrat Uni+0.00on par
Sebeta Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Welwalo Adigrat Uni ↓

Sebeta Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Welwalo Adigrat Uni or draw
62%
Welwalo Adigrat Uni or Sebeta Kenema
71%
Draw or Sebeta Kenema
68%

Winning margin

Welwalo Adigrat Uni wins by 2+
12%
Sebeta Kenema wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Welwalo Adigrat Uni 1+ goals
64%
Welwalo Adigrat Uni 2+ goals
28%
Welwalo Adigrat Uni 3+ goals
9%
Sebeta Kenema 1+ goals
68%
Sebeta Kenema 2+ goals
32%
Sebeta Kenema 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Welwalo Adigrat Uni (draw refunded)
46%
Sebeta Kenema (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Welwalo Adigrat Uni at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.30 · 44 matches

Sebeta Kenema away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.31 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Welwalo Adigrat Uni attack 0.75 + Sebeta Kenema defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.03

Sebeta Kenema attack 1.00 + Welwalo Adigrat Uni defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Welwalo Adigrat Uni scores more
32%
level
29%
Sebeta Kenema scores more
38%

Sebeta Kenema at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sebeta Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Sebeta Kenema

Welwalo Adigrat Uni and Sebeta Kenema drew 2-2 in Premier League on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Adigrat Stadium in Adigrat.