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Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Jimma Aba Jifar — Premier League 2019

Welwalo Adigrat Uni
Welwalo Adigrat Uni
FT
0 – 0
Jimma Aba Jifar
Jimma Aba Jifar
12/21/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Adigrat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Welwalo Adigrat Uni36%
×Draw30%
Jimma Aba Jifar34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Welwalo Adigrat Uni
1.04
Jimma Aba Jifar
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 35 away

creates per match

Welwalo Adigrat Uni
0.75
Jimma Aba Jifar
0.71

allows per match

Welwalo Adigrat Uni
1.30
Jimma Aba Jifar
1.34

finishing

Welwalo Adigrat Uni+0.00on par
Jimma Aba Jifar+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Welwalo Adigrat Uni ↓

Jimma Aba Jifar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Welwalo Adigrat Uni or draw
66%
Welwalo Adigrat Uni or Jimma Aba Jifar
70%
Draw or Jimma Aba Jifar
64%

Winning margin

Welwalo Adigrat Uni wins by 2+
14%
Jimma Aba Jifar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Welwalo Adigrat Uni 1+ goals
65%
Welwalo Adigrat Uni 2+ goals
28%
Welwalo Adigrat Uni 3+ goals
9%
Jimma Aba Jifar 1+ goals
63%
Jimma Aba Jifar 2+ goals
26%
Jimma Aba Jifar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Welwalo Adigrat Uni (draw refunded)
51%
Jimma Aba Jifar (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Welwalo Adigrat Uni at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.30 · 44 matches

Jimma Aba Jifar away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Welwalo Adigrat Uni attack 0.75 + Jimma Aba Jifar defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.04

Jimma Aba Jifar attack 0.71 + Welwalo Adigrat Uni defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Welwalo Adigrat Uni scores more
36%
level
30%
Jimma Aba Jifar scores more
34%

Welwalo Adigrat Uni at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Welwalo Adigrat Uni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Jimma Aba Jifar

Welwalo Adigrat Uni and Jimma Aba Jifar drew 0-0 in Premier League on December 21, 2019.

The match was played at Adigrat Stadium in Adigrat.