Wels 1–4 Wohnbau Dietach: Result & Stats

Wels

FT

1 – 4

Wohnbau Dietach

5/5/2023

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 25HUBER Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Wels18%

×Draw19%

Wohnbau Dietach63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WelsExpected goals in this matchWohnbau Dietach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

2.38

Wels

1.19

Wohnbau Dietach

2.38

Wohnbau Dietach creates 100% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

1.27

creates per match

2.16

2.60

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Wels

1.27

Wohnbau Dietach

2.16

allows per match

Wels

2.60

Wohnbau Dietach

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wels+0.00on par

Wohnbau Dietach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wels ↓

Wohnbau Dietach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Wels or draw

37%

Wels or Wohnbau Dietach

81%

Draw or Wohnbau Dietach

82%

Winning margin

Wels wins by 2+

7%

Wohnbau Dietach wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Wels 1+ goals

70%

Wels 2+ goals

33%

Wels 3+ goals

12%

Wohnbau Dietach 1+ goals

91%

Wohnbau Dietach 2+ goals

68%

Wohnbau Dietach 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Wels (draw refunded)

22%

Wohnbau Dietach (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wels at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.60 · 30 matches

Wohnbau Dietach away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wels attack 1.27 + Wohnbau Dietach defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.19

Wohnbau Dietach attack 2.16 + Wels defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Wels scores more

18%

level

19%

Wohnbau Dietach scores more

63%

Wohnbau Dietach at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Wohnbau Dietach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff