Wels 1–1 Sturm Graz II: Result & Stats

Wels

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sturm Graz II

9/4/2020

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 4HUBER Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Wels20%

×Draw20%

Sturm Graz II61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WelsExpected goals in this matchSturm Graz II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

2.29

Wels

1.23

Sturm Graz II

2.29

Sturm Graz II creates 86% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 48 away

1.17

creates per match

2.10

2.48

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Wels

1.17

Sturm Graz II

2.10

allows per match

Wels

2.48

Sturm Graz II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wels+0.00on par

Sturm Graz II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wels ↓

Sturm Graz II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Wels or draw

39%

Wels or Sturm Graz II

80%

Draw or Sturm Graz II

80%

Winning margin

Wels wins by 2+

8%

Sturm Graz II wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Wels 1+ goals

71%

Wels 2+ goals

35%

Wels 3+ goals

13%

Sturm Graz II 1+ goals

90%

Sturm Graz II 2+ goals

66%

Sturm Graz II 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Wels (draw refunded)

24%

Sturm Graz II (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wels at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.48 · 46 matches

Sturm Graz II away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wels attack 1.17 + Sturm Graz II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sturm Graz II attack 2.10 + Wels defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Wels scores more

20%

level

20%

Sturm Graz II scores more

61%

Sturm Graz II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sturm Graz II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff