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Wels vs Ried II — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Wels
Wels
CANC
17:00
Ried II
Ried II
5/29/2020Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 29HUBER Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Wels35%
×Draw21%
Ried II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wels
1.80
Ried II
2.00

Ried II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 91 away

creates per match

Wels
1.17
Ried II
1.53

allows per match

Wels
2.48
Ried II
2.44

finishing

Wels+0.00on par
Ried II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wels ↓

Ried II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Wels or draw
57%
Wels or Ried II
79%
Draw or Ried II
65%

Winning margin

Wels wins by 2+
18%
Ried II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Wels 1+ goals
83%
Wels 2+ goals
54%
Wels 3+ goals
27%
Ried II 1+ goals
86%
Ried II 2+ goals
59%
Ried II 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Wels (draw refunded)
45%
Ried II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wels at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.48 · 46 matches

Ried II away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.44 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wels attack 1.17 + Ried II defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.80

Ried II attack 1.53 + Wels defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wels scores more
35%
level
21%
Ried II scores more
43%

Ried II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ried II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wels vs Ried II — Match Preview

Wels face Ried II on May 29, 2020 in this Regionalliga - Mitte fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Wels host Ried II at HUBER Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.