Wels 0–2 Gleisdorf 09: Result & Stats

Wels

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Gleisdorf 09

11/2/2019

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 15HUBER Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Wels27%

×Draw22%

Gleisdorf 0952%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WelsExpected goals in this matchGleisdorf 09

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

2.01

Wels

1.39

Gleisdorf 09

2.01

Gleisdorf 09 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 105 away

1.17

creates per match

1.54

2.48

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Wels

1.17

Gleisdorf 09

1.54

allows per match

Wels

2.48

Gleisdorf 09

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wels+0.00on par

Gleisdorf 09+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wels ↓

Gleisdorf 09 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Wels or draw

48%

Wels or Gleisdorf 09

78%

Draw or Gleisdorf 09

73%

Winning margin

Wels wins by 2+

12%

Gleisdorf 09 wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Wels 1+ goals

75%

Wels 2+ goals

40%

Wels 3+ goals

16%

Gleisdorf 09 1+ goals

87%

Gleisdorf 09 2+ goals

59%

Gleisdorf 09 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Wels (draw refunded)

34%

Gleisdorf 09 (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wels at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.48 · 46 matches

Gleisdorf 09 away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.60 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wels attack 1.17 + Gleisdorf 09 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

Gleisdorf 09 attack 1.54 + Wels defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Wels scores more

27%

level

22%

Gleisdorf 09 scores more

52%

Gleisdorf 09 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gleisdorf 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff