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Gleisdorf 09 vs Wels — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Gleisdorf 09
Gleisdorf 09
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wels
Wels
4/14/2022Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 24Solarstadion der Stadt Gleisdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Gleisdorf 0957%
×Draw20%
Wels23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gleisdorf 09
2.29
Wels
1.41

Gleisdorf 09 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 46 away

creates per match

Gleisdorf 09
1.69
Wels
1.09

allows per match

Gleisdorf 09
1.73
Wels
2.89

finishing

Gleisdorf 09+0.00on par
Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gleisdorf 09 ↓

Wels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Gleisdorf 09 or draw
77%
Gleisdorf 09 or Wels
80%
Draw or Wels
43%

Winning margin

Gleisdorf 09 wins by 2+
35%
Wels wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gleisdorf 09 1+ goals
90%
Gleisdorf 09 2+ goals
66%
Gleisdorf 09 3+ goals
40%
Wels 1+ goals
76%
Wels 2+ goals
41%
Wels 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Gleisdorf 09 (draw refunded)
71%
Wels (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gleisdorf 09 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.73 · 107 matches

Wels away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.89 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gleisdorf 09 attack 1.69 + Wels defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.29

Wels attack 1.09 + Gleisdorf 09 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gleisdorf 09 scores more
57%
level
20%
Wels scores more
23%

Gleisdorf 09 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gleisdorf 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Gleisdorf 09 2–1 Wels

Gleisdorf 09 beat Wels 2-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on April 14, 2022.

The match was played at Solarstadion der Stadt Gleisdorf in Gleisdorf.