Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wels vs Friedburg / Pöndorf — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Wels
Wels
FT
1 – 2
Friedburg / Pöndorf
Friedburg / Pöndorf
3/16/2024Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 18HUBER Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Wels29%
×Draw20%
Friedburg / Pöndorf51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wels
1.65
Friedburg / Pöndorf
2.23

Friedburg / Pöndorf creates 35% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 89 away

creates per match

Wels
1.27
Friedburg / Pöndorf
1.85

allows per match

Wels
2.60
Friedburg / Pöndorf
2.03

finishing

Wels+0.00on par
Friedburg / Pöndorf+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wels ↓

Friedburg / Pöndorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Wels or draw
49%
Wels or Friedburg / Pöndorf
80%
Draw or Friedburg / Pöndorf
71%

Winning margin

Wels wins by 2+
14%
Friedburg / Pöndorf wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Wels 1+ goals
81%
Wels 2+ goals
49%
Wels 3+ goals
23%
Friedburg / Pöndorf 1+ goals
89%
Friedburg / Pöndorf 2+ goals
65%
Friedburg / Pöndorf 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Wels (draw refunded)
36%
Friedburg / Pöndorf (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wels at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.60 · 30 matches

Friedburg / Pöndorf away — creates 1.85, concedes 2.03 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wels attack 1.27 + Friedburg / Pöndorf defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.65

Friedburg / Pöndorf attack 1.85 + Wels defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Wels scores more
29%
level
20%
Friedburg / Pöndorf scores more
51%

Friedburg / Pöndorf at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Friedburg / Pöndorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wels vs Friedburg / Pöndorf

Friedburg / Pöndorf beat Wels 2-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at HUBER Arena in Wels.