Wels 0–4 CFR 1907 Cluj: Result & Stats

Wels

0 – 4

CFR 1907 Cluj

6/16/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3HUBER Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Wels19%

×Draw21%

CFR 1907 Cluj60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WelsExpected goals in this matchCFR 1907 Cluj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

2.10

Wels

1.10

CFR 1907 Cluj

2.10

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 91% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.20

creates per match

2.00

2.20

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Wels

1.20

CFR 1907 Cluj

2.00

allows per match

Wels

2.20

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wels+0.00on par

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wels ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Wels or draw

40%

Wels or CFR 1907 Cluj

79%

Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj

81%

Winning margin

Wels wins by 2+

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Wels 1+ goals

67%

Wels 2+ goals

30%

Wels 3+ goals

10%

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

88%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

62%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Wels (draw refunded)

24%

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Wels at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Wels attack 1.20 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 2.00 + Wels defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Wels scores more

19%

level

21%

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

60%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff