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Wels vs Bad Ischl — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Wels
Wels
FT
1 – 3
Bad Ischl
Bad Ischl
5/19/2023Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 27HUBER Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Wels38%
×Draw21%
Bad Ischl41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wels
1.95
Bad Ischl
2.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

Wels
1.27
Bad Ischl
1.43

allows per match

Wels
2.60
Bad Ischl
2.62

finishing

Wels+0.00on par
Bad Ischl+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wels ↓

Bad Ischl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Wels or draw
59%
Wels or Bad Ischl
79%
Draw or Bad Ischl
62%

Winning margin

Wels wins by 2+
20%
Bad Ischl wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Wels 1+ goals
86%
Wels 2+ goals
58%
Wels 3+ goals
31%
Bad Ischl 1+ goals
87%
Bad Ischl 2+ goals
60%
Bad Ischl 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Wels (draw refunded)
48%
Bad Ischl (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wels at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.60 · 30 matches

Bad Ischl away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.62 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wels attack 1.27 + Bad Ischl defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.95

Bad Ischl attack 1.43 + Wels defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wels scores more
38%
level
21%
Bad Ischl scores more
41%

Bad Ischl at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bad Ischl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wels 1 – 3 Bad Ischl

Bad Ischl beat Wels 3-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on May 19, 2023.

The match was played at HUBER Arena in Wels.