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Wels vs Bad Gleichenberg — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Wels
Wels
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 3
Bad Gleichenberg
Bad Gleichenberg
10/8/2021Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 13HUBER Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Wels29%
×Draw21%
Bad Gleichenberg50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wels
1.60
Bad Gleichenberg
2.12

Bad Gleichenberg creates 32% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 75 away

creates per match

Wels
1.17
Bad Gleichenberg
1.75

allows per match

Wels
2.48
Bad Gleichenberg
2.04

finishing

Wels+0.00on par
Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wels ↓

Bad Gleichenberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Wels or draw
50%
Wels or Bad Gleichenberg
79%
Draw or Bad Gleichenberg
71%

Winning margin

Wels wins by 2+
14%
Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Wels 1+ goals
80%
Wels 2+ goals
47%
Wels 3+ goals
22%
Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals
88%
Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals
62%
Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Wels (draw refunded)
37%
Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wels at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.48 · 46 matches

Bad Gleichenberg away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.04 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wels attack 1.17 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.60

Bad Gleichenberg attack 1.75 + Wels defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wels scores more
29%
level
21%
Bad Gleichenberg scores more
50%

Bad Gleichenberg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bad Gleichenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wels vs Bad Gleichenberg

Bad Gleichenberg beat Wels 4-2 in Regionalliga - Mitte on October 8, 2021.

The match was played at HUBER Arena in Wels.