Wellington Phoenix 0–3 Western Sydney

Wellington Phoenix

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Western Sydney

J. O'Doherty 90+2'

Oriol Riera 55' (pen)

A. Baumjohann 11'

11/3/2018

A-League · Round 3Westpac Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Wellington Phoenix44%

×Draw24%

Western Sydney33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wellington PhoenixExpected goals in this matchWestern Sydney

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.41

Wellington Phoenix

1.67

Western Sydney

1.41

Wellington Phoenix creates 18% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 105 away

1.57

creates per match

1.51

1.31

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Wellington Phoenix

1.57

Western Sydney

1.51

allows per match

Wellington Phoenix

1.31

Western Sydney

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wellington Phoenix+0.00on par

Western Sydney+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wellington Phoenix ↓

Western Sydney →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Wellington Phoenix or draw

67%

Wellington Phoenix or Western Sydney

76%

Draw or Western Sydney

56%

Winning margin

Wellington Phoenix wins by 2+

23%

Western Sydney wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Wellington Phoenix 1+ goals

81%

Wellington Phoenix 2+ goals

50%

Wellington Phoenix 3+ goals

23%

Western Sydney 1+ goals

76%

Western Sydney 2+ goals

41%

Western Sydney 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Wellington Phoenix (draw refunded)

57%

Western Sydney (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wellington Phoenix at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.31 · 106 matches

Western Sydney away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.77 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wellington Phoenix attack 1.57 + Western Sydney defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.67

Western Sydney attack 1.51 + Wellington Phoenix defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wellington Phoenix scores more

44%

level

24%

Western Sydney scores more

33%

Wellington Phoenix at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wellington Phoenix will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

V. Janjetović

Western Sydney · G

8.1

Match Events

11'

A. Baumjohann↳ B. Kamau

20'

Alex Rufer

54'

Andrew Durante

55'

Oriol RieraPenalty

59'

62'

74'

77'

87'

90'

D. Williams← A. Durante

90+4'

R. Mahazi← A. Baumjohann

90+2'

J. O'Doherty↳ K. Baccus

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WellingtonWestern

Overview

43%Possession57%

13Total Shots22

11Corners5

14Fouls21

Shots

13Total Shots22

4On Target6

6Off Target12

3Blocked4

9Inside Box16

4Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

320Total Passes427

218Accurate Passes339

68%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls21

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

4Offsides1

A-League: Wellington Phoenix 0–3 Western Sydney

Western Sydney beat Wellington Phoenix 3-0 in A-League on November 3, 2018.

Goals: A. Baumjohann (11'), Oriol Riera (55' pen), J. O'Doherty (90+2').

Western Sydney controlled possession (57%) and registered 22 shots to 13.

The match was played at Westpac Stadium in Wellington.

Wellington Phoenix vs Western Sydney — A-League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

A-League: Wellington Phoenix 0–3 Western Sydney