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Welayta Dicha vs Jimma Aba Jifar — Premier League 2019

Welayta Dicha
Welayta Dicha
CANC
00:00
Jimma Aba Jifar
Jimma Aba Jifar
5/2/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Wolaita Soddo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Welayta Dicha42%
×Draw31%
Jimma Aba Jifar27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Welayta Dicha
1.11
Jimma Aba Jifar
0.83

Welayta Dicha creates 34% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 35 away

creates per match

Welayta Dicha
0.88
Jimma Aba Jifar
0.71

allows per match

Welayta Dicha
0.95
Jimma Aba Jifar
1.34

finishing

Welayta Dicha+0.00on par
Jimma Aba Jifar+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Welayta Dicha ↓

Jimma Aba Jifar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Welayta Dicha or draw
73%
Welayta Dicha or Jimma Aba Jifar
69%
Draw or Jimma Aba Jifar
58%

Winning margin

Welayta Dicha wins by 2+
17%
Jimma Aba Jifar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Welayta Dicha 1+ goals
67%
Welayta Dicha 2+ goals
30%
Welayta Dicha 3+ goals
10%
Jimma Aba Jifar 1+ goals
56%
Jimma Aba Jifar 2+ goals
20%
Jimma Aba Jifar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Welayta Dicha (draw refunded)
61%
Jimma Aba Jifar (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Welayta Dicha at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.95 · 101 matches

Jimma Aba Jifar away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Welayta Dicha attack 0.88 + Jimma Aba Jifar defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.11

Jimma Aba Jifar attack 0.71 + Welayta Dicha defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Welayta Dicha scores more
42%
level
31%
Jimma Aba Jifar scores more
27%

Welayta Dicha at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Welayta Dicha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Welayta Dicha host Jimma Aba Jifar

May 2, 2020: Welayta Dicha take on Jimma Aba Jifar in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Welayta Dicha host Jimma Aba Jifar at Wolaita Soddo Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.