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Welayta Dicha vs Hambericho Durame — Premier League 2019

Welayta Dicha
Welayta Dicha
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hambericho Durame
Hambericho Durame
2/1/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Welayta Dicha53%
×Draw27%
Hambericho Durame21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Welayta Dicha
1.47
Hambericho Durame
0.81

Welayta Dicha creates 81% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 15 away

creates per match

Welayta Dicha
0.88
Hambericho Durame
0.67

allows per match

Welayta Dicha
0.95
Hambericho Durame
2.07

finishing

Welayta Dicha+0.00on par
Hambericho Durame+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Welayta Dicha ↓

Hambericho Durame →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Welayta Dicha or draw
79%
Welayta Dicha or Hambericho Durame
73%
Draw or Hambericho Durame
47%

Winning margin

Welayta Dicha wins by 2+
27%
Hambericho Durame wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Welayta Dicha 1+ goals
77%
Welayta Dicha 2+ goals
43%
Welayta Dicha 3+ goals
18%
Hambericho Durame 1+ goals
56%
Hambericho Durame 2+ goals
19%
Hambericho Durame 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Welayta Dicha (draw refunded)
72%
Hambericho Durame (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Welayta Dicha at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.95 · 101 matches

Hambericho Durame away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Welayta Dicha attack 0.88 + Hambericho Durame defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.47

Hambericho Durame attack 0.67 + Welayta Dicha defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Welayta Dicha scores more
53%
level
27%
Hambericho Durame scores more
21%

Welayta Dicha at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Welayta Dicha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Welayta Dicha vs Hambericho Durame

Welayta Dicha beat Hambericho Durame 1-0 in Premier League on February 1, 2024.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.