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Welayta Dicha vs Hadiya Hosaena — Premier League 2019

Welayta Dicha
Welayta Dicha
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hadiya Hosaena
Hadiya Hosaena
6/16/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Welayta Dicha33%
×Draw33%
Hadiya Hosaena34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Welayta Dicha
0.89
Hadiya Hosaena
0.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 102 away

creates per match

Welayta Dicha
0.88
Hadiya Hosaena
0.87

allows per match

Welayta Dicha
0.95
Hadiya Hosaena
0.90

finishing

Welayta Dicha+0.00on par
Hadiya Hosaena+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Welayta Dicha ↓

Hadiya Hosaena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Welayta Dicha or draw
66%
Welayta Dicha or Hadiya Hosaena
67%
Draw or Hadiya Hosaena
67%

Winning margin

Welayta Dicha wins by 2+
11%
Hadiya Hosaena wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Welayta Dicha 1+ goals
59%
Welayta Dicha 2+ goals
22%
Welayta Dicha 3+ goals
6%
Hadiya Hosaena 1+ goals
60%
Hadiya Hosaena 2+ goals
23%
Hadiya Hosaena 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Welayta Dicha (draw refunded)
49%
Hadiya Hosaena (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Welayta Dicha at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.95 · 101 matches

Hadiya Hosaena away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.90 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Welayta Dicha attack 0.88 + Hadiya Hosaena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.89

Hadiya Hosaena attack 0.87 + Welayta Dicha defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Welayta Dicha scores more
33%
level
33%
Hadiya Hosaena scores more
34%

Hadiya Hosaena at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Hadiya Hosaena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Welayta Dicha 2–1 Hadiya Hosaena

Welayta Dicha beat Hadiya Hosaena 2-1 in Premier League on June 16, 2024.

The match was played at Hawassa Stadium in Hawassa.