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Welayta Dicha vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank — Premier League 2019

Welayta Dicha
Welayta Dicha
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
2/9/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Welayta Dicha31%
×Draw30%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Welayta Dicha
0.95
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.09

Ethiopia Nigd Bank creates 15% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 52 away

creates per match

Welayta Dicha
0.88
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.23

allows per match

Welayta Dicha
0.95
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.02

finishing

Welayta Dicha+0.00on par
Ethiopia Nigd Bank+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Welayta Dicha ↓

Ethiopia Nigd Bank →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Welayta Dicha or draw
62%
Welayta Dicha or Ethiopia Nigd Bank
70%
Draw or Ethiopia Nigd Bank
69%

Winning margin

Welayta Dicha wins by 2+
11%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Welayta Dicha 1+ goals
61%
Welayta Dicha 2+ goals
25%
Welayta Dicha 3+ goals
7%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1+ goals
66%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 2+ goals
30%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Welayta Dicha (draw refunded)
45%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Welayta Dicha at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.95 · 101 matches

Ethiopia Nigd Bank away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.02 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Welayta Dicha attack 0.88 + Ethiopia Nigd Bank defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.95

Ethiopia Nigd Bank attack 1.23 + Welayta Dicha defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Welayta Dicha scores more
31%
level
30%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank scores more
38%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ethiopia Nigd Bank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Welayta Dicha 1 – 1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank

Welayta Dicha and Ethiopia Nigd Bank drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.