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Welayta Dicha vs Awassa Kenema — Premier League 2019

Welayta Dicha
Welayta Dicha
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Awassa Kenema
Awassa Kenema
12/1/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Welayta Dicha35%
×Draw30%
Awassa Kenema35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Welayta Dicha
1.05
Awassa Kenema
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 100 away

creates per match

Welayta Dicha
0.88
Awassa Kenema
1.14

allows per match

Welayta Dicha
0.95
Awassa Kenema
1.22

finishing

Welayta Dicha+0.00on par
Awassa Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Welayta Dicha ↓

Awassa Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Welayta Dicha or draw
65%
Welayta Dicha or Awassa Kenema
70%
Draw or Awassa Kenema
65%

Winning margin

Welayta Dicha wins by 2+
14%
Awassa Kenema wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Welayta Dicha 1+ goals
65%
Welayta Dicha 2+ goals
28%
Welayta Dicha 3+ goals
9%
Awassa Kenema 1+ goals
65%
Awassa Kenema 2+ goals
28%
Awassa Kenema 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Welayta Dicha (draw refunded)
50%
Awassa Kenema (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Welayta Dicha at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.95 · 101 matches

Awassa Kenema away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.22 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Welayta Dicha attack 0.88 + Awassa Kenema defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.05

Awassa Kenema attack 1.14 + Welayta Dicha defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Welayta Dicha scores more
35%
level
30%
Awassa Kenema scores more
35%

Welayta Dicha at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Welayta Dicha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Welayta Dicha vs Awassa Kenema

Welayta Dicha and Awassa Kenema drew 1-1 in Premier League on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.