Weiz 2–1 Wolfsberger AC II: Result & Stats

Weiz

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Wolfsberger AC II

4/17/2026

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 23Strobl Arena Weiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Weiz43%

×Draw22%

Wolfsberger AC II35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WeizExpected goals in this matchWolfsberger AC II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.75

Weiz

1.94

Wolfsberger AC II

1.75

Weiz creates 11% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 95 away

2.13

creates per match

1.85

1.65

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Weiz

2.13

Wolfsberger AC II

1.85

allows per match

Weiz

1.65

Wolfsberger AC II

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Weiz+0.00on par

Wolfsberger AC II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weiz ↓

Wolfsberger AC II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Weiz or draw

65%

Weiz or Wolfsberger AC II

78%

Draw or Wolfsberger AC II

57%

Winning margin

Weiz wins by 2+

23%

Wolfsberger AC II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Weiz 1+ goals

86%

Weiz 2+ goals

58%

Weiz 3+ goals

30%

Wolfsberger AC II 1+ goals

83%

Wolfsberger AC II 2+ goals

52%

Wolfsberger AC II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Weiz (draw refunded)

55%

Wolfsberger AC II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weiz at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.65 · 104 matches

Wolfsberger AC II away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.74 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weiz attack 2.13 + Wolfsberger AC II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.94

Wolfsberger AC II attack 1.85 + Weiz defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Weiz scores more

43%

level

22%

Wolfsberger AC II scores more

35%

Weiz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Weiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff