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Weiz vs Wels — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Weiz
Weiz
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Wels
Wels
6/10/2022Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 34SIEMENS Energy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Weiz61%
×Draw19%
Wels20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weiz
2.50
Wels
1.38

Weiz creates 81% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 46 away

creates per match

Weiz
2.11
Wels
1.09

allows per match

Weiz
1.66
Wels
2.89

finishing

Weiz+0.00on par
Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weiz ↓

Wels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Weiz or draw
80%
Weiz or Wels
81%
Draw or Wels
39%

Winning margin

Weiz wins by 2+
40%
Wels wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Weiz 1+ goals
92%
Weiz 2+ goals
71%
Weiz 3+ goals
45%
Wels 1+ goals
75%
Wels 2+ goals
40%
Wels 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Weiz (draw refunded)
75%
Wels (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weiz at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.66 · 107 matches

Wels away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.89 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weiz attack 2.11 + Wels defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.50

Wels attack 1.09 + Weiz defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Weiz scores more
61%
level
19%
Wels scores more
20%

Weiz at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Weiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Weiz vs Wels

Weiz beat Wels 3-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on June 10, 2022.

The match was played at SIEMENS Energy Stadion in Weiz.