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Weiz vs SK Vorwarts Steyr — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Weiz
Weiz
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
SK Vorwarts Steyr
SK Vorwarts Steyr
10/31/2024Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 14Strobl Arena Weiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Weiz52%
×Draw22%
SK Vorwarts Steyr26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weiz
1.96
SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.31

Weiz creates 50% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 30 away

creates per match

Weiz
2.13
SK Vorwarts Steyr
0.97

allows per match

Weiz
1.65
SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.80

finishing

Weiz+0.00on par
SK Vorwarts Steyr+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weiz ↓

SK Vorwarts Steyr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Weiz or draw
74%
Weiz or SK Vorwarts Steyr
78%
Draw or SK Vorwarts Steyr
48%

Winning margin

Weiz wins by 2+
30%
SK Vorwarts Steyr wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Weiz 1+ goals
86%
Weiz 2+ goals
58%
Weiz 3+ goals
31%
SK Vorwarts Steyr 1+ goals
73%
SK Vorwarts Steyr 2+ goals
38%
SK Vorwarts Steyr 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Weiz (draw refunded)
67%
SK Vorwarts Steyr (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weiz at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.65 · 104 matches

SK Vorwarts Steyr away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.80 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weiz attack 2.13 + SK Vorwarts Steyr defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.96

SK Vorwarts Steyr attack 0.97 + Weiz defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Weiz scores more
52%
level
22%
SK Vorwarts Steyr scores more
26%

Weiz at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Weiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Weiz vs SK Vorwarts Steyr

Weiz beat SK Vorwarts Steyr 3-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on October 31, 2024.

The match was played at Strobl Arena Weiz in Weiz.