Weidenhausen 3–3 FC 1906 Erlensee: Result & Stats

Weidenhausen

FT

3 – 3

FC 1906 Erlensee

3/23/2024

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 25Sportplatz Chattenloh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Weidenhausen48%

×Draw23%

FC 1906 Erlensee29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WeidenhausenExpected goals in this matchFC 1906 Erlensee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.40

Weidenhausen

1.86

FC 1906 Erlensee

1.40

Weidenhausen creates 33% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 57 away

1.75

creates per match

1.16

1.65

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Weidenhausen

1.75

FC 1906 Erlensee

1.16

allows per match

Weidenhausen

1.65

FC 1906 Erlensee

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Weidenhausen+0.00on par

FC 1906 Erlensee+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weidenhausen ↓

FC 1906 Erlensee →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Weidenhausen or draw

71%

Weidenhausen or FC 1906 Erlensee

77%

Draw or FC 1906 Erlensee

52%

Winning margin

Weidenhausen wins by 2+

27%

FC 1906 Erlensee wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Weidenhausen 1+ goals

84%

Weidenhausen 2+ goals

55%

Weidenhausen 3+ goals

28%

FC 1906 Erlensee 1+ goals

75%

FC 1906 Erlensee 2+ goals

41%

FC 1906 Erlensee 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Weidenhausen (draw refunded)

62%

FC 1906 Erlensee (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weidenhausen at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.65 · 71 matches

FC 1906 Erlensee away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.98 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weidenhausen attack 1.75 + FC 1906 Erlensee defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.86

FC 1906 Erlensee attack 1.16 + Weidenhausen defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Weidenhausen scores more

48%

level

23%

FC 1906 Erlensee scores more

29%

Weidenhausen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Weidenhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff