Weiden 5–1 Karlburg: Result & Stats

Weiden

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Karlburg

10/19/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 17Sparda-Bank-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Weiden64%

×Draw19%

Karlburg17%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WeidenExpected goals in this matchKarlburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.15

Weiden

2.38

Karlburg

1.15

Weiden creates 107% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 17 away

1.88

creates per match

0.94

1.36

allows per match

2.88

creates per match

Weiden

1.88

Karlburg

0.94

allows per match

Weiden

1.36

Karlburg

2.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Weiden+0.00on par

Karlburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weiden ↓

Karlburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Weiden or draw

83%

Weiden or Karlburg

81%

Draw or Karlburg

36%

Winning margin

Weiden wins by 2+

42%

Karlburg wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Weiden 1+ goals

91%

Weiden 2+ goals

68%

Weiden 3+ goals

42%

Karlburg 1+ goals

68%

Karlburg 2+ goals

32%

Karlburg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Weiden (draw refunded)

79%

Karlburg (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weiden at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.36 · 50 matches

Karlburg away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weiden attack 1.88 + Karlburg defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.38

Karlburg attack 0.94 + Weiden defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Weiden scores more

64%

level

19%

Karlburg scores more

17%

Weiden at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Weiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff