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Weiden vs Ingolstadt II — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Weiden
Weiden
Preview
12:00
Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
5/15/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 33
42%
Weiden
model favours
42%23%35%

Ingolstadt II have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Weiden42%
×Draw23%
Ingolstadt II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weiden
1.73
Ingolstadt II
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 51 away

creates per match

Weiden
1.88
Ingolstadt II
1.80

allows per match

Weiden
1.36
Ingolstadt II
1.57

finishing

Weiden+0.00on par
Ingolstadt II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weiden ↓

Ingolstadt II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Weiden or draw
65%
Weiden or Ingolstadt II
77%
Draw or Ingolstadt II
58%

Winning margin

Weiden wins by 2+
22%
Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Weiden 1+ goals
82%
Weiden 2+ goals
52%
Weiden 3+ goals
25%
Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
79%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
47%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Weiden (draw refunded)
54%
Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weiden at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.36 · 50 matches

Ingolstadt II away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weiden attack 1.88 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.73

Ingolstadt II attack 1.80 + Weiden defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Weiden scores more
42%
level
23%
Ingolstadt II scores more
35%

Weiden at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Weiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Weiden
LWDDW
II
LWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Weiden host Ingolstadt II

May 15, 2027: Weiden take on Ingolstadt II in Oberliga - Bayern Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.