Ingolstadt II 1–0 Weiden: Result & Stats

Ingolstadt II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Weiden

E. Gul 49'

7/26/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 2Audi Sportpark - Platz 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Ingolstadt II51%

×Draw22%

Weiden27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ingolstadt IIExpected goals in this matchWeiden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.41

Ingolstadt II

2.02

Weiden

1.41

Ingolstadt II creates 43% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 50 away

2.27

creates per match

1.32

1.50

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Ingolstadt II

2.27

Weiden

1.32

allows per match

Ingolstadt II

1.50

Weiden

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ingolstadt II+0.00on par

Weiden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt II ↓

Weiden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Ingolstadt II or draw

73%

Ingolstadt II or Weiden

78%

Draw or Weiden

49%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt II wins by 2+

30%

Weiden wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ingolstadt II 1+ goals

87%

Ingolstadt II 2+ goals

60%

Ingolstadt II 3+ goals

33%

Weiden 1+ goals

76%

Weiden 2+ goals

41%

Weiden 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)

66%

Weiden (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt II at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Weiden away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.76 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt II attack 2.27 + Weiden defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.02

Weiden attack 1.32 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ingolstadt II scores more

51%

level

22%

Weiden scores more

27%

Ingolstadt II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

49'

E. Gul

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff