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Weiden vs Eltersdorf — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Weiden
Weiden
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Eltersdorf
Eltersdorf
4/24/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 31Sparda-Bank-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Weiden36%
×Draw24%
Eltersdorf40%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weiden
1.50
Eltersdorf
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 68 away

creates per match

Weiden
1.88
Eltersdorf
1.78

allows per match

Weiden
1.36
Eltersdorf
1.13

finishing

Weiden+0.00on par
Eltersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weiden ↓

Eltersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Weiden or draw
60%
Weiden or Eltersdorf
76%
Draw or Eltersdorf
64%

Winning margin

Weiden wins by 2+
17%
Eltersdorf wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Weiden 1+ goals
78%
Weiden 2+ goals
44%
Weiden 3+ goals
19%
Eltersdorf 1+ goals
79%
Eltersdorf 2+ goals
46%
Eltersdorf 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Weiden (draw refunded)
48%
Eltersdorf (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weiden at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.36 · 50 matches

Eltersdorf away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weiden attack 1.88 + Eltersdorf defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.50

Eltersdorf attack 1.78 + Weiden defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Weiden scores more
36%
level
24%
Eltersdorf scores more
40%

Eltersdorf at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Eltersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Weiden vs Eltersdorf

Weiden and Eltersdorf drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on April 24, 2026.

The match was played at Sparda-Bank-Stadion in Weiden/Oberpfalz.