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Weiden vs Eintracht Münchberg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Weiden
Weiden
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Eintracht Münchberg
Eintracht Münchberg
S. Puhler 90+1'
P. Bytomski 79', 24' (pen)
8/9/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 5Sparda-Bank-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Weiden63%
×Draw19%
Eintracht Münchberg18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weiden
2.29
Eintracht Münchberg
1.15

Weiden creates 99% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 17 away

creates per match

Weiden
1.88
Eintracht Münchberg
0.94

allows per match

Weiden
1.36
Eintracht Münchberg
2.71

finishing

Weiden+0.00on par
Eintracht Münchberg+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weiden ↓

Eintracht Münchberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Weiden or draw
82%
Weiden or Eintracht Münchberg
81%
Draw or Eintracht Münchberg
37%

Winning margin

Weiden wins by 2+
40%
Eintracht Münchberg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Weiden 1+ goals
90%
Weiden 2+ goals
66%
Weiden 3+ goals
40%
Eintracht Münchberg 1+ goals
68%
Eintracht Münchberg 2+ goals
32%
Eintracht Münchberg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Weiden (draw refunded)
78%
Eintracht Münchberg (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weiden at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.36 · 50 matches

Eintracht Münchberg away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weiden attack 1.88 + Eintracht Münchberg defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.29

Eintracht Münchberg attack 0.94 + Weiden defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Weiden scores more
63%
level
19%
Eintracht Münchberg scores more
18%

Weiden at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Weiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
P. BytomskiPenalty
79'
P. Bytomski
90+1'
S. Puhler

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Weiden 3–0 Eintracht Münchberg

Weiden beat Eintracht Münchberg 3-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on August 9, 2024.

Goals: P. Bytomski (24' pen, 79'), S. Puhler (90+1').

The match was played at Sparda-Bank-Stadion in Weiden/Oberpfalz.