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Weiden vs Bayern Hof — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Weiden
Weiden
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bayern Hof
Bayern Hof
S. Graf 77'
J. Rodler 71'
M. Zeitler 11'
J. Uzuamaka 90+1'
M. Weiss 87'
4/28/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 30Sparda-Bank-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Weiden45%
×Draw23%
Bayern Hof31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weiden
1.76
Bayern Hof
1.43

Weiden creates 23% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 69 away

creates per match

Weiden
1.88
Bayern Hof
1.49

allows per match

Weiden
1.36
Bayern Hof
1.64

finishing

Weiden+0.00on par
Bayern Hof+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weiden ↓

Bayern Hof →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Weiden or draw
69%
Weiden or Bayern Hof
77%
Draw or Bayern Hof
55%

Winning margin

Weiden wins by 2+
24%
Bayern Hof wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Weiden 1+ goals
83%
Weiden 2+ goals
52%
Weiden 3+ goals
26%
Bayern Hof 1+ goals
76%
Bayern Hof 2+ goals
42%
Bayern Hof 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Weiden (draw refunded)
59%
Bayern Hof (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weiden at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.36 · 50 matches

Bayern Hof away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.64 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weiden attack 1.88 + Bayern Hof defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.76

Bayern Hof attack 1.49 + Weiden defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Weiden scores more
45%
level
23%
Bayern Hof scores more
31%

Weiden at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Weiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
M. Zeitler
71'
J. Rodler
77'
S. Graf
87'
M. Weiss
90+1'
J. Uzuamaka

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Weiden 3–2 Bayern Hof

Weiden beat Bayern Hof 3-2 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on April 28, 2023.

Goals: M. Zeitler (11'), J. Rodler (71'), S. Graf (77'), M. Weiss (87'), J. Uzuamaka (90+1').

The match was played at Sparda-Bank-Stadion in Weiden/Oberpfalz.