Weiche Flensburg 3–0 Kolding IF: Result & Stats

Weiche Flensburg

FT

3 – 0

Kolding IF

1/24/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Weiche Flensburg44%

×Draw22%

Kolding IF34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Weiche FlensburgExpected goals in this matchKolding IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.65

Weiche Flensburg

1.91

Kolding IF

1.65

Weiche Flensburg creates 16% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

2.40

creates per match

1.50

1.80

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Weiche Flensburg

2.40

Kolding IF

1.50

allows per match

Weiche Flensburg

1.80

Kolding IF

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Weiche Flensburg+0.00on par

Kolding IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weiche Flensburg ↓

Kolding IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Weiche Flensburg or draw

66%

Weiche Flensburg or Kolding IF

78%

Draw or Kolding IF

56%

Winning margin

Weiche Flensburg wins by 2+

24%

Kolding IF wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Weiche Flensburg 1+ goals

85%

Weiche Flensburg 2+ goals

57%

Weiche Flensburg 3+ goals

30%

Kolding IF 1+ goals

81%

Kolding IF 2+ goals

49%

Kolding IF 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Weiche Flensburg (draw refunded)

57%

Kolding IF (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weiche Flensburg at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Kolding IF away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weiche Flensburg attack 2.40 + Kolding IF defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.91

Kolding IF attack 1.50 + Weiche Flensburg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Weiche Flensburg scores more

44%

level

22%

Kolding IF scores more

34%

Weiche Flensburg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Weiche Flensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Weiche

Kolding

Manager: T. Fröhling

Manager: Albert Rude