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Weißkirchen / Allhaming vs Wels — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Weißkirchen / Allhaming
Weißkirchen / Allhaming
FT
4 – 0
Wels
Wels
10/27/2023Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 13Sportplatz Weißkirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Weißkirchen / Allhaming79%
×Draw13%
Wels8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weißkirchen / Allhaming
2.96
Wels
0.86

Weißkirchen / Allhaming creates 244% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 29 away

creates per match

Weißkirchen / Allhaming
2.20
Wels
0.59

allows per match

Weißkirchen / Allhaming
1.13
Wels
3.72

finishing

Weißkirchen / Allhaming+0.00on par
Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weißkirchen / Allhaming ↓

Wels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Weißkirchen / Allhaming or draw
92%
Weißkirchen / Allhaming or Wels
87%
Draw or Wels
21%

Winning margin

Weißkirchen / Allhaming wins by 2+
59%
Wels wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Weißkirchen / Allhaming 1+ goals
95%
Weißkirchen / Allhaming 2+ goals
79%
Weißkirchen / Allhaming 3+ goals
55%
Wels 1+ goals
58%
Wels 2+ goals
21%
Wels 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Weißkirchen / Allhaming (draw refunded)
91%
Wels (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weißkirchen / Allhaming at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.13 · 89 matches

Wels away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.72 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weißkirchen / Allhaming attack 2.20 + Wels defence 3.72 → ÷2 → 2.96

Wels attack 0.59 + Weißkirchen / Allhaming defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Weißkirchen / Allhaming scores more
79%
level
13%
Wels scores more
8%

Weißkirchen / Allhaming at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Weißkirchen / Allhaming will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Weißkirchen / Allhaming vs Wels

Weißkirchen / Allhaming beat Wels 4-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on October 27, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Weißkirchen in Weißkirchen.