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Wehen Wiesbaden U19 vs Bochum U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Wehen Wiesbaden U19
Wehen Wiesbaden U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Bochum U19
Bochum U19
9/21/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 7Stadion Wallbacherstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Wehen Wiesbaden U1940%
×Draw21%
Bochum U1939%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wehen Wiesbaden U19
2.01
Bochum U19
1.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 67 away

creates per match

Wehen Wiesbaden U19
2.50
Bochum U19
2.13

allows per match

Wehen Wiesbaden U19
1.85
Bochum U19
1.52

finishing

Wehen Wiesbaden U19+0.00on par
Bochum U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 ↓

Bochum U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 or draw
61%
Wehen Wiesbaden U19 or Bochum U19
79%
Draw or Bochum U19
60%

Winning margin

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 wins by 2+
22%
Bochum U19 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 1+ goals
87%
Wehen Wiesbaden U19 2+ goals
59%
Wehen Wiesbaden U19 3+ goals
32%
Bochum U19 1+ goals
86%
Bochum U19 2+ goals
59%
Bochum U19 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 (draw refunded)
50%
Bochum U19 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

Bochum U19 away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.52 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 attack 2.50 + Bochum U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 2.01

Bochum U19 attack 2.13 + Wehen Wiesbaden U19 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 scores more
40%
level
21%
Bochum U19 scores more
39%

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wehen Wiesbaden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wehen Wiesbaden U19 vs Bochum U19

Bochum U19 beat Wehen Wiesbaden U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Wallbacherstraße in Idstein.