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Wegberg-Beeck vs Friesdorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Wegberg-Beeck
Wegberg-Beeck
FT
6 – 2
HT: 4 – 1
Friesdorf
Friesdorf
10/12/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 7Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Wegberg-Beeck64%
×Draw18%
Friesdorf18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wegberg-Beeck
2.45
Friesdorf
1.22

Wegberg-Beeck creates 101% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 36 away

creates per match

Wegberg-Beeck
2.40
Friesdorf
1.36

allows per match

Wegberg-Beeck
1.07
Friesdorf
2.50

finishing

Wegberg-Beeck+0.00on par
Friesdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wegberg-Beeck ↓

Friesdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Wegberg-Beeck or draw
82%
Wegberg-Beeck or Friesdorf
82%
Draw or Friesdorf
36%

Winning margin

Wegberg-Beeck wins by 2+
42%
Friesdorf wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Wegberg-Beeck 1+ goals
91%
Wegberg-Beeck 2+ goals
70%
Wegberg-Beeck 3+ goals
44%
Friesdorf 1+ goals
70%
Friesdorf 2+ goals
34%
Friesdorf 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wegberg-Beeck (draw refunded)
78%
Friesdorf (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wegberg-Beeck at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.07 · 45 matches

Friesdorf away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wegberg-Beeck attack 2.40 + Friesdorf defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.45

Friesdorf attack 1.36 + Wegberg-Beeck defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Wegberg-Beeck scores more
64%
level
18%
Friesdorf scores more
18%

Wegberg-Beeck at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Wegberg-Beeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Wegberg-Beeck 6–2 Friesdorf

Wegberg-Beeck beat Friesdorf 6-2 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on October 12, 2022.

The match was played at Waldstadion in Wegberg-Beeck.