Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wegberg-Beeck vs Bonn-Endenich — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Wegberg-Beeck
Wegberg-Beeck
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Bonn-Endenich
Bonn-Endenich
4/11/2025Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 21Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Wegberg-Beeck66%
×Draw18%
Bonn-Endenich15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wegberg-Beeck
2.37
Bonn-Endenich
1.05

Wegberg-Beeck creates 126% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 29 away

creates per match

Wegberg-Beeck
2.40
Bonn-Endenich
1.03

allows per match

Wegberg-Beeck
1.07
Bonn-Endenich
2.34

finishing

Wegberg-Beeck+0.00on par
Bonn-Endenich+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wegberg-Beeck ↓

Bonn-Endenich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Wegberg-Beeck or draw
85%
Wegberg-Beeck or Bonn-Endenich
82%
Draw or Bonn-Endenich
34%

Winning margin

Wegberg-Beeck wins by 2+
44%
Bonn-Endenich wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Wegberg-Beeck 1+ goals
91%
Wegberg-Beeck 2+ goals
68%
Wegberg-Beeck 3+ goals
42%
Bonn-Endenich 1+ goals
65%
Bonn-Endenich 2+ goals
28%
Bonn-Endenich 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Wegberg-Beeck (draw refunded)
81%
Bonn-Endenich (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wegberg-Beeck at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.07 · 45 matches

Bonn-Endenich away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.34 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wegberg-Beeck attack 2.40 + Bonn-Endenich defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.37

Bonn-Endenich attack 1.03 + Wegberg-Beeck defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Wegberg-Beeck scores more
66%
level
18%
Bonn-Endenich scores more
15%

Wegberg-Beeck at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Wegberg-Beeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wegberg-Beeck vs Bonn-Endenich

Wegberg-Beeck beat Bonn-Endenich 4-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on April 11, 2025.

The match was played at Waldstadion in Wegberg-Beeck.