Wealdstone 2–1 Slough Town: Result & Stats

Wealdstone

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Slough Town

N. Tshikuna 27'

D. Woodman 10'

J. Drakes-Thomas 87'

8/2/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Wealdstone30%

×Draw25%

Slough Town45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WealdstoneExpected goals in this matchSlough Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.60

Wealdstone

1.27

Slough Town

1.60

Slough Town creates 26% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

1.30

creates per match

1.50

1.70

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Wealdstone

1.30

Slough Town

1.50

allows per match

Wealdstone

1.70

Slough Town

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wealdstone+0.00on par

Slough Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wealdstone ↓

Slough Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Wealdstone or draw

55%

Wealdstone or Slough Town

75%

Draw or Slough Town

70%

Winning margin

Wealdstone wins by 2+

13%

Slough Town wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Wealdstone 1+ goals

72%

Wealdstone 2+ goals

36%

Wealdstone 3+ goals

14%

Slough Town 1+ goals

80%

Slough Town 2+ goals

47%

Slough Town 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Wealdstone (draw refunded)

40%

Slough Town (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wealdstone at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Slough Town away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wealdstone attack 1.30 + Slough Town defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Slough Town attack 1.50 + Wealdstone defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wealdstone scores more

30%

level

25%

Slough Town scores more

45%

Slough Town at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Slough Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

D. Woodman

27'

N. Tshikuna

87'

J. Drakes-Thomas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff