Wealdstone vs Milton Keynes Dons

Wealdstone

Preview

14:00

Milton Keynes Dons

7/25/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

46%

Milton Keynes Dons

model favours

33%22%46%

Wealdstone and Milton Keynes Dons have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

71%

over 2.5 goals

70%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wealdstone33%

×Draw22%

Milton Keynes Dons46%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WealdstoneExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

2.00

Wealdstone

1.67

Milton Keynes Dons

2.00

Milton Keynes Dons creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

2.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Wealdstone

1.33

Milton Keynes Dons

2.00

allows per match

Wealdstone

2.00

Milton Keynes Dons

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wealdstone+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wealdstone ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Wealdstone or draw

54%

Wealdstone or Milton Keynes Dons

78%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

67%

Winning margin

Wealdstone wins by 2+

16%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Wealdstone 1+ goals

81%

Wealdstone 2+ goals

50%

Wealdstone 3+ goals

23%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

86%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

59%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Wealdstone (draw refunded)

42%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Wealdstone at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Wealdstone attack 1.33 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Milton Keynes Dons attack 2.00 + Wealdstone defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wealdstone scores more

33%

level

22%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

46%

Milton Keynes Dons at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Wealdstone

LDWLL

Dons

WDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff