Wealdstone 1–3 Milton Keynes Dons: Result & Stats

Wealdstone

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Milton Keynes Dons

E. Boldewijn 68'

M. Dennis 81'

J. Tomlinson 16'

S. Wearne 12'

7/27/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Grosvenor Vale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Wealdstone38%

×Draw23%

Milton Keynes Dons39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WealdstoneExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.67

Wealdstone

1.64

Milton Keynes Dons

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.50

creates per match

1.67

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Wealdstone

1.50

Milton Keynes Dons

1.67

allows per match

Wealdstone

1.67

Milton Keynes Dons

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wealdstone+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wealdstone ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Wealdstone or draw

61%

Wealdstone or Milton Keynes Dons

77%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

62%

Winning margin

Wealdstone wins by 2+

19%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Wealdstone 1+ goals

81%

Wealdstone 2+ goals

49%

Wealdstone 3+ goals

23%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

81%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

50%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Wealdstone (draw refunded)

49%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wealdstone at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wealdstone attack 1.50 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.64

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.67 + Wealdstone defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wealdstone scores more

38%

level

23%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

39%

Milton Keynes Dons at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

16'

68'

81'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff