Wealdstone 0–3 Luton: Result & Stats

Wealdstone

0 – 3

Luton

A. Shinnie 50'

J. Clark 34'

K. LuaLua 9'

8/25/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Grosvenor Vale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Wealdstone9%

×Draw14%

Luton77%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WealdstoneExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

2.75

Wealdstone

0.85

Luton

2.75

Luton creates 224% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

1.30

creates per match

3.80

1.70

allows per match

0.40

creates per match

Wealdstone

1.30

Luton

3.80

allows per match

Wealdstone

1.70

Luton

0.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wealdstone+0.00on par

Luton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wealdstone ↓

Luton →

0–03%

0–18%

0–211%

0–310%

0–47%

1–02%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Wealdstone or draw

23%

Wealdstone or Luton

86%

Draw or Luton

91%

Winning margin

Wealdstone wins by 2+

Luton wins by 2+

56%

Team goals

Wealdstone 1+ goals

57%

Wealdstone 2+ goals

21%

Wealdstone 3+ goals

Luton 1+ goals

93%

Luton 2+ goals

75%

Luton 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Wealdstone (draw refunded)

11%

Luton (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Wealdstone at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Luton away — creates 3.80, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Wealdstone attack 1.30 + Luton defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.85

Luton attack 3.80 + Wealdstone defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 77%?"

Wealdstone scores more

level

14%

Luton scores more

77%

Luton at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

K. LuaLua

34'

J. Clark

50'

A. Shinnie

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff