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Wealdstone vs AFC Wimbledon — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Wealdstone
Wealdstone
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
A. Ali 71'
O. Bugiel 7'
7/29/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Grosvenor Vale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Wealdstone24%
×Draw23%
AFC Wimbledon52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wealdstone
1.15
AFC Wimbledon
1.79

AFC Wimbledon creates 56% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Wealdstone
1.30
AFC Wimbledon
1.88

allows per match

Wealdstone
1.70
AFC Wimbledon
1.00

finishing

Wealdstone+0.00on par
AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wealdstone ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Wealdstone or draw
48%
Wealdstone or AFC Wimbledon
77%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
76%

Winning margin

Wealdstone wins by 2+
10%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Wealdstone 1+ goals
68%
Wealdstone 2+ goals
32%
Wealdstone 3+ goals
11%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
83%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
53%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Wealdstone (draw refunded)
32%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wealdstone at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wealdstone attack 1.30 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.88 + Wealdstone defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Wealdstone scores more
24%
level
23%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
52%

AFC Wimbledon at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
O. Bugiel
71'
A. Ali

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wealdstone vs AFC Wimbledon

AFC Wimbledon beat Wealdstone 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 29, 2023.

Goals: O. Bugiel (7'), A. Ali (71').

The match was played at Grosvenor Vale in Ruislip, Middlesex.