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WDSC Wolves vs Western Pride — Queensland Premier League 2026

WDSC Wolves
WDSC Wolves
FT
0 – 1
Western Pride
Western Pride
4/11/2021Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 4Carmichael Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

WDSC Wolves39%
×Draw22%
Western Pride39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WDSC Wolves
1.81
Western Pride
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 32 away

creates per match

WDSC Wolves
1.68
Western Pride
1.66

allows per match

WDSC Wolves
2.00
Western Pride
1.94

finishing

WDSC Wolves+0.00on par
Western Pride+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WDSC Wolves ↓

Western Pride →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

WDSC Wolves or draw
61%
WDSC Wolves or Western Pride
78%
Draw or Western Pride
61%

Winning margin

WDSC Wolves wins by 2+
20%
Western Pride wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

WDSC Wolves 1+ goals
84%
WDSC Wolves 2+ goals
54%
WDSC Wolves 3+ goals
27%
Western Pride 1+ goals
84%
Western Pride 2+ goals
54%
Western Pride 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

WDSC Wolves (draw refunded)
49%
Western Pride (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WDSC Wolves at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.00 · 22 matches

Western Pride away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WDSC Wolves attack 1.68 + Western Pride defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.81

Western Pride attack 1.66 + WDSC Wolves defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

WDSC Wolves scores more
39%
level
22%
Western Pride scores more
39%

WDSC Wolves at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "WDSC Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: WDSC Wolves vs Western Pride

Western Pride beat WDSC Wolves 1-0 in Queensland Premier League on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Carmichael Park in Brisbane.