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WDSC Wolves vs Surfers Paradise Apollo — Queensland Premier League 2026

WDSC Wolves
WDSC Wolves
FT
2 – 2
Surfers Paradise Apollo
Surfers Paradise Apollo
6/24/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 15Carmichael Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

WDSC Wolves21%
×Draw20%
Surfers Paradise Apollo59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WDSC Wolves
1.29
Surfers Paradise Apollo
2.27

Surfers Paradise Apollo creates 76% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 11 away

creates per match

WDSC Wolves
1.68
Surfers Paradise Apollo
2.55

allows per match

WDSC Wolves
2.00
Surfers Paradise Apollo
0.91

finishing

WDSC Wolves+0.00on par
Surfers Paradise Apollo+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WDSC Wolves ↓

Surfers Paradise Apollo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

WDSC Wolves or draw
41%
WDSC Wolves or Surfers Paradise Apollo
80%
Draw or Surfers Paradise Apollo
79%

Winning margin

WDSC Wolves wins by 2+
9%
Surfers Paradise Apollo wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

WDSC Wolves 1+ goals
72%
WDSC Wolves 2+ goals
37%
WDSC Wolves 3+ goals
14%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 1+ goals
90%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 2+ goals
66%
Surfers Paradise Apollo 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

WDSC Wolves (draw refunded)
26%
Surfers Paradise Apollo (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WDSC Wolves at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.00 · 22 matches

Surfers Paradise Apollo away — creates 2.55, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WDSC Wolves attack 1.68 + Surfers Paradise Apollo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.29

Surfers Paradise Apollo attack 2.55 + WDSC Wolves defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

WDSC Wolves scores more
21%
level
20%
Surfers Paradise Apollo scores more
59%

Surfers Paradise Apollo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Surfers Paradise Apollo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: WDSC Wolves vs Surfers Paradise Apollo

WDSC Wolves and Surfers Paradise Apollo drew 2-2 in Queensland Premier League on June 24, 2023.

The match was played at Carmichael Park in Brisbane.