WDSC Wolves 5–1 Souths United: Result & Stats

WDSC Wolves

FT

5 – 1

Souths United

4/15/2012

League #191 · Round 6Carmichael Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

WDSC Wolves74%

×Draw13%

Souths United13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WDSC WolvesExpected goals in this matchSouths United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.69

1.55

WDSC Wolves

3.69

Souths United

1.55

WDSC Wolves creates 138% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

4.67

creates per match

1.43

1.67

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

WDSC Wolves

4.67

Souths United

1.43

allows per match

WDSC Wolves

1.67

Souths United

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

WDSC Wolves+0.00on par

Souths United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WDSC Wolves ↓

Souths United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–13%

1–23%

1–31%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–17%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

75%25%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

WDSC Wolves or draw

87%

WDSC Wolves or Souths United

87%

Draw or Souths United

26%

Winning margin

WDSC Wolves wins by 2+

57%

Souths United wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

WDSC Wolves 1+ goals

97%

WDSC Wolves 2+ goals

87%

WDSC Wolves 3+ goals

69%

Souths United 1+ goals

79%

Souths United 2+ goals

46%

Souths United 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

WDSC Wolves (draw refunded)

86%

Souths United (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WDSC Wolves at home — creates 4.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Souths United away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WDSC Wolves attack 4.67 + Souths United defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 3.69

Souths United attack 1.43 + WDSC Wolves defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

WDSC Wolves scores more

74%

level

13%

Souths United scores more

13%

WDSC Wolves at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "WDSC Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff