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WDSC Wolves vs Olympic — Queensland NPL 2026

WDSC Wolves
WDSC Wolves
FT
4 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Olympic
Olympic
3/17/2024Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 4Carmichael Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

WDSC Wolves31%
×Draw21%
Olympic48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WDSC Wolves
1.63
Olympic
2.07

Olympic creates 27% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 103 away

creates per match

WDSC Wolves
1.65
Olympic
2.01

allows per match

WDSC Wolves
2.13
Olympic
1.60

finishing

WDSC Wolves+0.00on par
Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WDSC Wolves ↓

Olympic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

WDSC Wolves or draw
52%
WDSC Wolves or Olympic
79%
Draw or Olympic
69%

Winning margin

WDSC Wolves wins by 2+
15%
Olympic wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

WDSC Wolves 1+ goals
80%
WDSC Wolves 2+ goals
48%
WDSC Wolves 3+ goals
22%
Olympic 1+ goals
87%
Olympic 2+ goals
61%
Olympic 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

WDSC Wolves (draw refunded)
39%
Olympic (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WDSC Wolves at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.13 · 31 matches

Olympic away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.60 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WDSC Wolves attack 1.65 + Olympic defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.63

Olympic attack 2.01 + WDSC Wolves defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

WDSC Wolves scores more
31%
level
21%
Olympic scores more
48%

Olympic at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: WDSC Wolves vs Olympic

WDSC Wolves beat Olympic 4-3 in Queensland NPL on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Carmichael Park in Brisbane.