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Olympic vs WDSC Wolves — Queensland NPL 2026

Olympic
Olympic
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
WDSC Wolves
WDSC Wolves
L. Farr 20'
Z. Maltby 89'
L. Francis 72'
4/23/2025Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 6Goodwin Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Olympic50%
×Draw21%
WDSC Wolves29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympic
2.06
WDSC Wolves
1.54

Olympic creates 34% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 32 away

creates per match

Olympic
1.91
WDSC Wolves
1.94

allows per match

Olympic
1.15
WDSC Wolves
2.22

finishing

Olympic+0.00on par
WDSC Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympic ↓

WDSC Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Olympic or draw
71%
Olympic or WDSC Wolves
79%
Draw or WDSC Wolves
50%

Winning margin

Olympic wins by 2+
29%
WDSC Wolves wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Olympic 1+ goals
87%
Olympic 2+ goals
61%
Olympic 3+ goals
34%
WDSC Wolves 1+ goals
79%
WDSC Wolves 2+ goals
45%
WDSC Wolves 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Olympic (draw refunded)
63%
WDSC Wolves (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympic at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.15 · 89 matches

WDSC Wolves away — creates 1.94, concedes 2.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympic attack 1.91 + WDSC Wolves defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.06

WDSC Wolves attack 1.94 + Olympic defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Olympic scores more
50%
level
21%
WDSC Wolves scores more
29%

Olympic at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
L. Farr
72'
L. Francis
89'
Z. Maltby

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Olympic 1–2 WDSC Wolves

WDSC Wolves beat Olympic 2-1 in Queensland NPL on April 23, 2025.

Goals: L. Farr (20'), L. Francis (72'), Z. Maltby (89').

The match was played at Goodwin Park in Brisbane.