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WDSC Wolves vs Gold Coast Knights — Queensland NPL 2026

WDSC Wolves
WDSC Wolves
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Gold Coast Knights
Gold Coast Knights
4/17/2026Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

WDSC Wolves26%
×Draw21%
Gold Coast Knights53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WDSC Wolves
1.46
Gold Coast Knights
2.13

Gold Coast Knights creates 46% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 93 away

creates per match

WDSC Wolves
1.65
Gold Coast Knights
2.12

allows per match

WDSC Wolves
2.13
Gold Coast Knights
1.28

finishing

WDSC Wolves+0.00on par
Gold Coast Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WDSC Wolves ↓

Gold Coast Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

WDSC Wolves or draw
47%
WDSC Wolves or Gold Coast Knights
79%
Draw or Gold Coast Knights
74%

Winning margin

WDSC Wolves wins by 2+
12%
Gold Coast Knights wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

WDSC Wolves 1+ goals
77%
WDSC Wolves 2+ goals
43%
WDSC Wolves 3+ goals
18%
Gold Coast Knights 1+ goals
88%
Gold Coast Knights 2+ goals
63%
Gold Coast Knights 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

WDSC Wolves (draw refunded)
33%
Gold Coast Knights (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WDSC Wolves at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.13 · 31 matches

Gold Coast Knights away — creates 2.12, concedes 1.28 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WDSC Wolves attack 1.65 + Gold Coast Knights defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.46

Gold Coast Knights attack 2.12 + WDSC Wolves defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

WDSC Wolves scores more
26%
level
21%
Gold Coast Knights scores more
53%

Gold Coast Knights at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gold Coast Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: WDSC Wolves 0–4 Gold Coast Knights

Gold Coast Knights beat WDSC Wolves 4-0 in Queensland NPL on April 17, 2026.